Adikesavulu Naidu, still in TDP?
started by Pranay001 1 month agoReplies
>>>>>DUT,
No, the party cannot dissipate just like that. It is here to stay, it has deep roots and at any time it commands a respectful 42% of vote at the minimum. Congress + TDP will always get at least 90 percent vote.
If we discuss TDP alone, their problem is with their infighting and with their candidate selection.
Take Nalgonda TDP for example. Mr.Gutta Sukhender Reddy and Mr.Narasimhulu command terrific following in that district that sends Home Minister Jana Reddy to the Assembly. But Mr.Reddy and Mr.Narasimhulu are at logger heads with each other, which might affect their chances in the next Assembly election. Again, this is very common in any party. But if they work at cross-purposes at the time of reckoning, the party will end up being relegated to even third place this time.
Take Guntur TDP for example. Their leadership has heavy weights like Mr. Kodela Sivaprasada Rao, Mr. Makineni Pedarattaiah, Mr. Yedlapati Venkata Rao, Mr. Lal Jan Basha, Mr. Alapati Raja etc. Arguably, the best combination to take Guntur district by storm. But their infighting has been so dismal that a few months back, it was reported that Babu was considering locking up Guntur TDP office to silence them. On Congress side, there is no answer to Mr. Rayapati Sambasiva Rao's hayaam. It is a single man show in Guntur as far as Congress is concerned.
I need not explain the blunder behind the selection of Mr.Aswini Dutt for the Vijayawada Lok Sabha seat, at the expense of a very strong candidate, who was also a sitting MP at that time, Mr. Gadde Ram Mohan. I hope they learn their lesson with selection of candidates. Just like they fielded Mr. Dayakar Rao and won Warangal Lok Sabha seat comfortably with strong Congress and TRS presence, recently. This type of thinking is needed if they want to spring surprises this time too, in every district.
Nothing brings me greater satisfaction than discussing any thing about AP. In the morning, I was listening to this Saluri Rajeswara Rao song, *ing Shobhan Babu and Vani Sree. The music was so enchanting and gratifying. The World looks so wonderful! :)
Pranay,
I didpute the theory of 90% for Cong +TDP theory.
Each MLA constituency has about 250 major families with 4 to 5 major factions leading them. Congress has long standing roots in each constituency. TDP has wdie spread roots but still much smaller than congress.
But Chiranjeevi can carry his weight in each constituency.
Money, major issues such inflation, and caste alliances will make the diffrences in the final analysis.
Current trends are in favor of Congress. TDP does not have much going for it. TDP could have gained some ground by being the alternative to congress but that is muddied by Chiranjeevi's entry.
In his over expectation of a massive win, Chiranjeevi is likely to aim for solo win and split the opposition vote. This is likely to help Congress.
In my view, it is YSR for another five years.
There are rains all over AP and as long as rural Andhra is happy, Congress should be happy. Why not? They have not allowed the split of AP.
Chiranjeevi might get 10 percent of vote, just like Vijayakanth. He might win West Godavari Assembly seats with huge margins, just like Vijayakanth's followers won Cuddalore in a heap......It will be nothing more than that for Chiranjeevi. If Adikesavulu Naidu gets Chittoor Lok Sabha ticket for Chiru's party, I guess he might be either #1 or #2 after the final count of votes.
Congress + TDP will win 80-85 percent of the vote and that will be the key for the state's stability.
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DUT,
Coming back to Chittoor, TDP is strong in Punganur, Piler and Palamener constituencies, which are diary strong holds. I need not stress enough about who holds sway over these diary companies, which are providing employment to so many people. So, did TDP win in all of these constituencies? No. It was all because of poor sandidate selection. Fielding film star Roja against Srinath Reddy in Piler was a blunder. So there you go!
It seems that Ms. Jeevitha will be State Mahila Congress President, Ms. Roja for TDP and Ms.Suhasini for Chiru's party.....bavundi!
Enjoyed the conversation.
Later,
I was probably a bit harsh. TDP will survive..I meant their chances in the coming elections of capturing a majority are close to nil unless there's a deal of sorts with chiranjeevi's party (which is unlikely).
but I agree with you: part of CBN's strength was his candidate selection process..he's shown some creativity in the past. but I think that his hold is slipping, causing him to bargain from a position of weakness, unable to control fractional infighting and so on. and leaders that consider themselves 'next-in-line' are supposedly disenchanted with NTR's family wading in...that sorta cronyism sucks and cant be good for the morale of new leaders.
that dayakar rao is something else. apparently he knows almost 50% of the population that he's canvassed among, by name. shows rare dedication.
Is he an important money bag? Reports suggest he may move towards Chiranjeevi.