Investment outlook for May 2008

started by desichatter 4 mnths ago

At the end of April, I recommended buying TLT puts. That has paid off handsomely (95% returns in 20 days).

I asked people to wait for S&P to touch 1450 and then short aggressively. The stock market has rallied, but still hasnt touched 1450 yet.  It is a good time to unwind positions.

Told folks to buy the dollar (UUP)...worked well so far.

Check it out yourself!!

Stay tuned every month for my stock tips.

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  denice _menace posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
wattabbout mutual funds i invested in smith and barney last month...and they said they will manage the portfolio mine is medium agressive stocks..

  Anetra posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
Hi desi, i lost quite a lot on citi calls. I made a bunch shorting URBN at 34.50. but i lost it all on citi options. I was long C27.5 Jan 08 call. After the Meredith Whitney announcement I bailed out at 22.

I am long LVS now at 69. I'm tired of the option manipulations. Shares seem safer to bet on right on.
  desichatter posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 3 mnths ago

LVS took a hit too...options arent the problem. Its your stock picks.

RIght now, just stay away from trading...IMO.



  desichatter posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
nodoby interessed in stock markettery?? hayn?
  deep purple posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
ur post talks of past. and your link talks of keeping the cash. i want to buy something today. khujli ho rahi hai.
  desichatter posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago

Resist the temptation of becoming the "bali ka bakra"!! If SPY touches 150, then buy SDS! 

I have listed several 'plays' for this market - UUP, TLT puts, PMF, PML etc etc ...check out my past recommendations too....

I have been consistent with my recommendations and have been right on target for the most part....

  deep purple posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
interesting. so SPY is S&P 500 index currently arnd 144, while SDS is "The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the S&P 500 index." 

how does it work? thx.
  desichatter posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
If SPY drops by 1%, SDS gains by 2%
  deep purple posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
hmm. thats quite interesting. cant this 1% difference be exploited?  Thanks, btw.
  desichatter posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
SDS is a structured ETF called Ultrashort S&P....you cant 'exploit' it any further...

If you are hellbent on being bullish on some stock, then a very high-risk investment would be airlines....Oil prices may have hit an intermediate top and prices may tumble, giving airline stocks a spike....however, I would advise you to stay away from the market unless somebody has a gun against your head!
  desichatter posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago

MADE THIS CALL A WEEK AGO!  OIL PRICES ARE DROPPING AND AIRLINE STOCKS ARE SPIKING!!!!

  Propagandhi12 posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
a friend made the same call and bought united stock last week and lost 24k in one day at which point he sold. it really matters when and where you pull the trigger.


  deep purple posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago

Let me verify -

Invest $100 in SPY, $100 in SDS. Portfolio $200.

SPY drops 1% to $99. SDS gains 2% to $102. Portfolio $201.

SPY gains 1% to $101. SDS drops 2% to $98. Portfolio $199.

Ah. dont bother.

  desichatter posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
ok...so what exactly is your plan???
  deep purple posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
I am eyeing HD, MSFT and IIF today. sell next week. or even keep it.
  desichatter posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago

All dogs...

HD is definitely going to disappoint.....credit crunch and home price declines are going to hit it very badly. Check the results for Lowes before putting down any money on HD...the co has not downward revised its 2008 earnings...meaning it is setting itself up for disappointment

MSFT might be relatively safe...dont expect spectacular returns anyways....but is a good 'preservation of capital' play.

IIF.....stay away....don't touch with a six-feet pole!!!

  deep purple posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
think market over-reacted at HD today. their P/E is low. decent dividends. and its at abt 5 yr low. This country has a lot to construct. This stock could pick up a couple of % in next 7-10 days.

MSFT went below 28, for no apparent reason. Good time to buy for either short-or-long term. 

IIF - I have been observing for last 5 years - it goes below $40, comes back up to $45 - apparently 100s of times in an year. I do not plan to keep it. Take my few % gain and leave it.
  desichatter posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
Good luck...let me know when u sell!
  deep purple posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
well. didnt buy any DC. maybe will control my impulsive nature till after May 27th.
  desichatter posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
Arent u glad you didnt?








  Truthbetold3 posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
Desi,

We read in news that indicators are showing a bounce.  That is there may not be a recession or even a small growth in coming quarters.  What is your thinking? To put more money into market or stay on sidelines?

Agri stocks are still hot. What do you think?

Any sector rising now?




  desichatter posted Re:Investment outlook for May 2008 on 4 mnths ago
Stay on the sidelines....










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