July 22 confidence test seems to be tentalizingly poised.
UPA trying to get JMM/Shibu soren, JD(S)/Dave Gowda, RLD/Ajit singh and Shiv Sena and Akali dal.
Maya trying to get JMM/Shibu soren, JD(S)/Dave Gowda, RLD/Ajit singh and also trying to split SP using Muslim angle.
JD (U) was threatening Laloo with breaking his party.
Ministry posts/CM posts/30 to 40 crores are flying around.
Now Interestingly even news papers are getting involved by creating the impression that one side or the other is gaining. TOI, NDTV, HT are siding with UPA. They are planting news items that say CPM resigned to loss attributed to some source.
It is going to be interesting 40 hours.UPA fortunes ???
At the end of the I suspect the UPA government will survive, just like the PVNR government did -- with similar tactics including buying votes with cash. The interesting question is how much a few months in office is worth. With all the big money being "invested" in this confidence vote, I suppose the UPA figures that they can still make a "return" on it before the elections that are due next year.
Truthbetold3 posted Re:UPA fortunes ??? on 3 mnths ago
Carvaka/Uppili,
I won't be surprised with either way. I was talking to people in India this morning and they thought UPA win is a certainty. Over the late hours things have changed.
I suspect shiv sena because of Mukesh Ambani's Money. I do not know if he would step in but if he does, it will be tough for shiv sena to resist.
If I have a dollar to bet, I will bet on UPA.
I think the situation will remain fluid till the end. If UPA gains upper hand it may get to 280 by pulling in all fence sitters. If UPA loses, It may lose by close margin.
Mayawati will gain immensely even she becomes PM for a short period of time say 3 to 6 months. She will become a national Dalit leader for a long time and congress will have significant vote erosion for long term.
If UPA satys in power they can push through some reforms that were put on back burner because of Left's reluctance. That is good for the country.
Akali is a coalition partner in Punjab rite ? So rule that out - even otherwise... Sardar ji are more reliable than even hard core Hindus like Shiv sena
Shiv sena wont go for UPA bcz of the elections... they cant go it alone and BJP will not be able to forgive them again for betraying them Shiv sena - with its split - needs BJP to put up a reasonable show. The key will be PMK, MDMK, TSR, etc.. who all likely to break with UPA for their local agenda and aims. But congress will prevail through hook and by crook.